Stalemate Already

In the bilateral talk, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, did not accept an invitation from the President of the United States, Barack Obama, to the concerted effort of sanctioning Russia with accusation against its violation of Ukrainian sovereignty in Crimea. It did not mean that Japan wanted to be separated from U.S. and to support Russian effort of maintaining its influence to Ukraine. Abe simply did not have any choice of the next move. It was a consequence of Abe’s arbitrary handling of politics.

The call was made from Obama to Abe, just the same way he did for requesting support on U.S. possible military option against Syria last fall. According to reports, Obama explained about U.S. economic sanction against Russia, while Abe expressed his support to U.S. measures. Because Abe did not confirm Japan’s attitude to international sanction against Russia, a Russian news agency reported that Japan did not consider it.

The sanction announced by U.S. included restraining visa issue to Russian officials and freezing Russian assets in U.S., which were owned by individuals or organizations threatening peace in Ukraine. European Union followed U.S. with suspension of negotiation over no-visa traveling between E.U. and Russia. Urging Japan further steps, U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, told that he wanted Canada and Japan to be cooperative in the process for easing the tension.

For Abe, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is now a closer friend than Obama. He met Putin for five times in his second term starting December 2012, and boasted the good personal relationship with Putin. On the other hand, personal relationship with Obama has not been cultivated, or rather deteriorated. Disappointment of Abe’s close staff against U.S. “disappointment” on Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine was said to be a reflection what Abe himself had been feeling toward U.S.

Although Abe wanted to appeal his determination to improve Japan-Russia relationship, he needed to reconfirm Japan-U.S. alliance. It is fair to say that Abe was lucky in having Obama as his counterpart, because his unclear attitude might have invited a serious problem, if his counterpart had been someone like George W. Bush, who would require firm support from his allies. If it had been Jun-ichiro Koizumi, Japan must immediately have stood by U.S.

After all, the only thing Abe can do is keeping silence. However, the crucial point is that Abe is not smart enough to recognize the seriousness of international politics. The stakes over Crimea is too high for both U.S. and Russia to make any practical compromises. Japan is likely to have to choose one side of the two. Staying on current standpoint is a way for losing both.