TPP and Election

It was once called the Opening of Japan in Heisei version. Trans-Pacific Partnership, on which 12 countries overwhelmingly agreed, rose up as one of the hottest issues in coming election of House of Councillors. The leading parties sell their policy to promote ratification process, appealing TPP to be a good opportunity for Japanese economy. The opposite parties accuse the conclusion drawn by Shinzo Abe administration. Farmers are determining the fate of both sides.

It was the administration led by Democratic Party of Japan that started considering participation to TPP. Naoto Kan, then Minister of Finance and later Prime Minister, led the discussion on it, resembling that unprecedented free-trade pact the opening of country at the end of Edo era. So, it is fair to say that Democratic Party is an original promoter of TPP.

Abe administration succeeded the policy after taking the seat late 2012. Abe announced participation to the rulemaking negotiation, which group on Pacific Rim included Japan’s most competitive counterpart, United States. When the negotiation reached overwhelming agreement last October, Abe told that he would make efforts to take foreign power in economic growth of Japan.

Among comprehensive issues in TPP, including manufacture, deregulation or intellectual property, agriculture marks highest stake between the leading parties and the opposite. The government of Japan calculated the impact of TPP on Japanese agriculture to be ¥130 to ¥210 billion of decline. While the government expects the farmers to manage their production with lowering cost or subsidy, the farmers are frustrated with their insufficient perspectives.

The Diet of Japan passed a resolution that demanded the negotiation to protect five products: rice, wheat, beef/pork, dairy products and sugar. The opposite parties criticized Abe to have violated the resolution, because the farmers would suffer from the abolition of tariff in 30% of agricultural products. Abe insisted that he achieved tariff exemption in 20% of all.

Agriculture has a great significance in every election of House of Councillors, in which 32 local electoral districts for one seat each will determine win or lose. In five districts in Tohoku region, agricultural cooperative organization defied candidates with Liberal Democratic Party. While the leading parties encourage the farmers to make their production efficient, the opposite parties require introduction of new subsidy on house-by-house basis. Votes of farmers may affect post-election politics of Abe administration.