Strategy for Dissolution

The members of House of Representatives passed the halfway point of their term last month. To enhance or maintain his political basis, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks dissolution of the House within this year. The biggest point of the election is whether the leading coalition by Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito will maintain its two-third majority, or whether the opposite parties regain their power through integration of their candidates.

The Constitution of Japan has been interpreted as rending Prime Minister a power to dissolve House of Representatives in terms of advising Emperor’s acts in matters of state. The House has to have general election within forty days from the dissolution. That’s is why it is rare for lawmakers in the House to fulfill their term for four years. Under current constitution instituted after World War II, the average of their actual term has been two years and nine months.

There is a speculation in LDP that Abe is going to dissolve the House this fall after raising his popularity by reshuffling his Cabinet. That perspective is based on hard schedule in the first half of this year. Abe seeks another opportunity to meet with Donald Trump as soon as Trump takes his seat in White House. To maintain the momentum for peace treaty with Russia, Abe announced that he would visit Russia in early timing of this year. There are a number of diplomatic schedules this year.

In the ordinary session of the Diet, starting later this month, Abe administration has to deal with special legislation for abdication of Emperor Akihito. The lawmakers need to pass a bill for new map of electoral districts to reduce the gap of values between each vote. To maintain good relationship with Komeito, Abe cannot dissolve the House in the summer when the election of Tokyo Metropolitan Congress will be held.

If Japanese economy keeps its momentum followed by high stock price after Trump was elected last fall, it is likely that Abe administration will maintain its political stability. But if not, the opposite party can take a good opportunity of restoration with sharp criticism against Abenomics. According to a survey of Mainichi Shimbun, it is possible for them to take back fifty-eight seats, if they are successful in raising integrated candidates in each district. The leading coalition can reduce its seats from current 327 to around 270, losing two-third majority.

If Abe fails in finding good timing for the dissolution this year, it is likely for the administration to lose as great power as it is enjoying now. He will have a few political choices next year, because consumption tax hike is waiting in October. The result of the election depends on economy anyway.