Still Serious Demographic Problem

In spite of accumulated efforts by the government, demographic problem in Japan is still serious. According to a survey operated by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the population of Japan in 2065 would be 88 million, reducing 39 million from current level. While the estimation has got little milder than previous survey in 2012, 86 million in 2065, Japan still faces a crisis of losing power in economy or other area.

To maintain population, a woman has to give 2.07 births in average for her entire life. In Japan, that birth rate was 1.35 five years ago. With increase of births by mothers in her 30s or 40s, the birth rate rose to 1.45. The survey this year found that the rate would be staying around 1.43 after mid-2020s. Even in this estimate, population in Japan will be less than 100 million in 2053.

The ratio of the people in 65 years old or older will rise from current 26.6% to 38.4% in 2065. One person in working age, 20 to 64 years old, will have to support one aged people at the time. If Japan reaches the goal of 1.80 birth rate, set by the government, total population in 2065 will be 100.45 million. If foreign immigrants increase by 500 thousand every year, the estimated population will rise up to 119 million, decreasing the rate of aged people to 30.6%.

Rate of the lifetime unmarried indicates serious situation of Japanese society. The ratio of men who have not experienced marriage until 50 years old is currently 23.37%. For women, it decreases to 14.06%. However, this rate was 1.7% for men and 3.33% for women in 1970. The survey estimates that 18.8% of women in 17 years old now will not have chance of marriage in their entire lives.

To avoid the negative scenario, the government needs to improve welfare policy. Working mothers deadly want public help for raising their kids. Nursery schools are full, leaving mothers unable to work behind, and continuously in short of workforce. Offices are not kind to those working mothers, reducing salary for her absence in office for taking care of kids.

Social security for aged people embraces fundamental problem caused by highly aged society. The highest rate of the aged people will be 36.1% in 2042, when the baby boomers occupy the most of those agers. Young workers will have to support those aged people with their salary every year. The workforce will not be consumed for enhancing state power, but maintaining aged people.