Conservative Division of Okinawa

Coming gubernatorial election in Okinawa, expected to be on November 16^th, will be a referendum on relocation of Futenma Air Base of United States Marine Corps. After incumbent governor, Hirokazu Nakaima, decided to allow landfill construction at Henoko Coast, where the base would be settled, broad protests against him wrapped Okinawa islands. Nevertheless, Nakaima became the first candidate who stepped forward for next election. It is likely that the election will show deep division among the people in Okinawa.

Taking a form of accepting demand from local organization of Liberal Democratic Party, Nakaima officially announced his intention to run for the governor for his third term. “I believe the relocation plan is the best choice with shortest time for settling the problem of the world most dangerous base of Futenma. I will put the period on it as soon as possible,” told Nakaima to the party leaders in Okinawa. That naturally became his campaign promise.

At the time he accepted starting landfill construction, he was supposed not to run for next election. But after Mayor of Naha, Takeshi Onaga, revealed his willingness to run for governor with opposition against Henoko relocation plan, Nakaima changed his attitude to be positive for running. Onaga, having been the leader of Nakaima campaign office four years ago, was one of the most reliable colleagues in the conservatives in Okinawa for Nakaima. Nakaima found a threat in Onaga’s move, which might be overturning his decision.

In spite of local LDP’s support to Nakaima, Onaga is still looking to run for governor even with support from the Communists and the Social Democrats in Okinawa. Calculating the situation that most of all the people in Okinawa, including conservative Liberal Democrats, have been against Henoko plan, Onaga is expecting to integrate voters against Nakaima. But there is another move on the opposition side of raising another candidate, former lawmaker with LDP and later New National Party, Mikio Shimoji. Democratic Party of Japan has still not decided what to do as it has always been.

This is a big headache for the headquarters of LDP in Tokyo, because coalition partner, New Komeito, has been showing supportive action for Onaga. If Komeito supports Onaga in the election, difference from LDP becomes apparent, causing further decline in supporting rate of the party and Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. As well as the election for the governor of Fukushima, local election this fall may mark watershed of the administration.