Observer of Political Battle in China

Reports of newspapers on the decision of Chinese Communist Party to launch an investigation on corruption related to a former domestic security chief, Zhou Yongkang, provided the readers with impression that something was happening inside Chinese leadership. They realized that Zhou would be the most senior official to be accused of graft scandal. However, nobody in Japan has accurately explained how that power struggle would affect China’s attitude to Japan.

As a member of Politburo Standing Committee, Zhou exercised his political power with support of former President, Jiang Zemin. Not only as a top leader in domestic security, Zhou represented the interest of government-owned petroleum companies. Although the party only said that Zhou was suspected “serious disciplinary violations,” some sources indicated his illegal request to the petroleum companies of favor to some enterprises run by his family or relatives.

Reports focused on how the case should be unusual in Chinese politics. It has been a secret agreement in Chinese politics that the leader would not arrest member of Politburo, because its political impact must be too great. Under slogan of knocking down corruption “regardless flies or tigers,” Xi Jinping has been active in investigating political scandals. It was obviously a demonstration to appeal the public that had deeply been frustrated concentration of wealth on privileged leaders. One thing is clear: Xi solidified his political basis.

Xi was careful enough in hedging backlashes from old aged leaders. Reuters reported that Xi achieved admissions from former Presidents, Jiang and Hu Jintao, on accusing Zhou. The deal was reportedly promising no further accusation of higher-ranked leaders. By the downfall of Zhou, influence of the conservatives will inevitably be weakened.

Those are what the Japanese can understand about the scandal so far. The greatest question for them is how Xi’s political maneuver affects China’s foreign policy, namely assertive promotion in South and East China Sea. While Xi looks likely to take further assertive attitude in territorial issue to appeal to nationalistic public, it can be said that he may have more options between hard line and softer deal.

The problem is no one in Shinzo Abe administration seems to have gotten necessary information inside China. Under mostly anti-China leadership, Japan is desperately in need of connection with Chinese administration. As if ignoring development in a neighbor country, Prime Minister Abe enjoys travel in Middle and South America. Ability of diplomats is limited. Dialogue between top leaders is definitely important.