Reinterpretation Took Its Toll

As predicted, hijacking the constitution significantly eroded popularity of Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. Polls have shown steep down of supporting rate for Abe Cabinet after he decided reinterpretation of the Constitution of Japan to enable exercising collective self-defense right on Tuesday. Main reasons were because people thought discussion had been halfway and preventive measures against excessive use of force would be insufficient.

According to the poll conducted by Kyodo News Agency at the day of Cabinet decision on the reinterpretation and the day after, supporting rate of Abe Cabinet fell from 52.1% in June to 47.8%. The answer of “I do not support” rose over 40% for the first time in Abe administration. Yomiuri poll showed a greater drop by 9 points and it marked the lowest point, 48%, from the beginning of the administration.

To the decision, 54.4% responded as opposing exercise of collective self-defense right, while 34.6% supported. In Kyodo poll, 82.1% expressed their recognition that the discussion had not been sufficient. Yomiuri found that 81% of recipients thought the government had not explained enough about the policy. One may say that the majority decided the decision, while others may regard the policy as still misunderstood. Apparent tendency was frustration on process of decision making.

However, it is inappropriate to attribute Abe’s unpopularity to lack of knowledge among the people. The reasons why they opposed were clear. 73.9% in Kyodo poll was afraid of expansion of use of force, enabled by the reinterpretation. 68.4% answered that dismissing the House of Representatives would be needed to get legitimacy on the policy. 60.0% thought the method of reinterpretation avoiding constitutional amendment was wrong, mostly doubling the supporters. People who thought possibility of being involved in wars rose up to 61.2%, overtaking the ratio of people who expected stronger deterrence, which was 34.0%.

Those results indicated that overwhelming support for self-defense force would hardly be expectable, if Japan gets involved in multi-national operation in, for example, Middle East or Northern Africa. It is unlikely that U.S. Navy vessels will transport Japanese evacuees from Korean Peninsula in contingency. Exercising collective self-defense right or participating international effort of collective security measures is highly unlikely in this situation of extremely narrow support from the public. It showed again that the sharp dispute in Japan was strictly personal agenda of the Premier.