Security Oddity

After Cabinet decision of Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, to reinterpret the Constitution to recognize collective self-defense right last Tuesday, security discussion in Japan has been looking to go to nowhere. Making clear contrast with their attitude of hurrying up, high-level leaders of Abe administration began to emphasize that related legislative process was not necessarily be done before the end of this year. Wasn’t the decision necessary before new guideline for security cooperation with United States scheduled at the end of this year, you guys?

Secretary General of Liberal Democratic Party, Shigeru Ishiba, stressed to take enough time for legislative process in the Diet. “The process of legislation will not smoothly go forward without deliberation on overall law system by preserving ample time in a whole session of the Diet,” Ishiba told at a TV program on Sunday. On possibility of the process to be delayed from this fall session to the spring session next year, Ishiba did not denied, indicating it to be a matter of speed of remaining works for legislation.

Abe looked like not to have recovered from the shock of steep decline of public support for him. Abe required comprehensive discussion on security issues in the Diet, which would spend long time and be difficult to settle within this year.

Abe also announced his intention to establish new minister for security issues. Security issues had traditionally been dealt by Minister of Defense. Creating new minister may bring confusion of decision making in the administration. Focusing too much on reshaping governance system, Abe has already invited dualism in diplomacy. To deal with the crisis in Ukraine, Abe did not send the Ambassador to Russia or Minister of Foreign Affairs, but Director of National Security Council to Kremlin. As its result, Japan took weaker attitude to Russia than the Europeans and the Americans did.

Contrast between enthusiasm before the Cabinet decision and sober behavior afterward showed the truth of reinterpretation. To be precise, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, only wanted nominal change in Japan’s security policy, which would spotlight his position as a reformer. Functional security cooperation with United States depends on how actual legislatures will be generated and how much Abe can get public support on them.

There are some difficult policy decisions waiting Abe this fall. Resumption of nuclear reactors and further tax burden on consumers will significantly erode his political assets. Reshuffling ministers in his cabinet may cause political instability with unbalanced choice of personalities. There is no view for Abe to raise his position rest of this year.